TD Cowen, part of the Canadian financial services group TD Securities, increased its forecast for AerCap’s first-quarter earnings per share to $3.90, up from a previous estimate of $3.57 and above the consensus forecast of $3.67. The upgrade is driven primarily by stronger gains on aircraft sales and a higher level of share buybacks during the period.
The bank also lifted its full-year projections for the US-Irish leasing group, raising its 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimate to $16.25 from $16.00 and its 2027 estimate to $17.75 from $17.50. Its price target on the stock was increased to $170 from $165.
AerCap’s performance in the quarter was supported by robust aircraft sales activity, particularly involving newer-technology aircraft, which helped sustain proceeds despite a slight decline in overall asset disposals. TD Cowen estimates sale proceeds of around $1.2 billion for the quarter, only marginally below the prior quarter, with gain-on-sale revenue forecast at $196 million, well above consensus expectations.
Share buybacks were another key driver, with the company repurchasing $745 million of stock during the quarter, its third-largest buyback on record. The purchases are expected to be around 3.3% accretive to earnings per share, according to the bank.
Looking ahead, TD Cowen expects AerCap to continue returning capital to shareholders, forecasting $2.5 billion in buybacks in 2026 and $1.95 billion in 2027, as the lessor benefits from strong demand for aircraft and an active secondary market.