2024 to see more capacity and fewer flights compared to pre-pandemic, FCM Consulting

Four years since the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic that posed unparallel challenges across the globe, the aviation sector is still grappling to recover to a post-pandemic status quo. Outlooks for the year ahead have been positive despite notable headwinds with strong demand for travel in a post-COVID world still intact. The FCM Consulting's Q4 2023 Quarterly Global Trends Report coincides with this, highlighting that global seats will be 3.5% (97.9 million) higher in the first half of 2024 in comparison to the first half of 2019. Global flights are set to be 5.6% (2.1 million) less in consideration of the same period. ""This is a result of fleet configuration changes and shifts in schedules to meet demand,"" the report said. "" When carefully planned, this will be favourable to airline operating costs, staffing, airport slots, and airport costs."" Africa and the Middle East had the most favourable outlooks. Comparing the first half of 2024 to the same period in 2019, Africa is expected to see an increase in capacity by 11% and flights by 6%, and the Middle East is predicted a 7% increase in capacity and 4% in flights. For North America, it can expect a 7% increase in seats and an equal decline in flights; Latin America is predicted a 6% increase in seats and 1% decline in flights; Asia should see a 3% increase in seats and a 1% increase in flights. Australasia can expect to return to the same level of capacity as the first half of 2019 and flights will be 2% less. Unfortunately, Europe can expect to see be 1% short of 2019 levels and 8% less. Both China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines are expected to surpass 2019 flight and seat levels in 2024. The report said: ""The top Chinese airlines, in percentage terms, will offer 21% more seats in 2024 vs 2019."" It added: ""Across other regions, standout airlines are: Regional Express (+92%), FlyDubai (+56%), and Ryanair (+39%) by percentage growth 2024 vs 2019."" When considering the G20 group, airline prices are expected to continue to rise in 2024. It added: ""The only exception being Europe, where the weakened economy may force consumer prices to remain flat or decline where demand reduces."" The report also found that corporate travel budgets are ""tight"" with business trip expenses remaining high.